UnderTheThunder.org Blog

Today will have to be a virtual chase day. My chase-cation is over and the weekend is behind me.
Hopefully, I’ll a) be available to chase next weekend and b) there will be severe storms with 500 miles of home during that time.

In the meantime, on with the virtual chase:

FACTOR	REAL CHASE	VIRTUAL CHASE	THE DIFFERENCE
Breakfast	High-carb feast: Carbon; brand waffle machine, sugar-free syrup, orange juice, fruit (if I’m lucky)	Protein bar, Low sodium V-8, sparkling water	Gotta eat leaner when I not running around, toting bags of gear and clothing, etc. Virtual chasing gives me more choice, however.
Forecasting	Always another opinion	Just my own ideas and opinion.	I use the same technique: check the SLIM factors: shear, lift, instability, moisture. I look at the SPC convective outlook maps and text for the day then try to identify what they’re discussing on the NAM, WRF, RAP, HRRR models runs.I check the visible satellite pictures to see what sort of clearing and morning storms I have.  I peruse logP-skewT charts around my target area to gauge what sort of moisture and wind setup I have. I see where storm ingredients come together between 18Z (1pm CDT) and 0Z (7pm). Since I’ve shadowed Bill Reid and seen so many of his forecasts since 2002, I try to do as Bill does. (It’s served me very well, but I get too little storm time in the Great Plains to really boost my skills in the field.)
Computing / Comms Resources	My iPhone (RadarScope, MyWarn, etc.), my MSI Wind U120 netbook (1GB RAM, Windows XP, GRlevel3, GRLevel2Analyst, StormLab, Delorme Street Atlas, Davis WeatherLink), Sprint MiFi, connectivity prayers	All of the above, plus numerous 25-inch screens, quad-core desktop (Windows 7, 8GB RAM, all of the software on the netbook), 25Mbps internet, business-class high-redundancy router	More screen real estate and speed at home. My mobile gear has done well over the years, however. (Time to upgrade that 2009-vintage netbook next season, too.)
Watching the sky	Observe the sky directly. In the early Doswell days, the ability to read the maps was a beginning, but the ability to correctly read the sky often determined	Use fixed webcams across the web and (closer to storm time) streaming video from Spotter Network members to see what’s happening in the real world. Obviously, the latter will introduce the bias of the person streaming the video, but I have a few favorite streamers to follow. I feel we all have biases, so I try to choose mine carefully *smiles* .	Mo’ sky, mo’ bettah

Assumed base city: Wichita, KS (so I can join Jim, Jenna and Woodrow for the morning Starbucks run )
Initial target: Comanche, OK

Basis:
(Verbiage to be added later. Short version: Looks to me like shear, lift, instability, and moisture all come together in south central OK around 20Z. Charts follow.)

Factor	Remarks	MAP 1 – 4-6pm	MAP 2 – around 7 pm	MAP 3 – after 7pm
_	_	_	_	_
_	_	_	_	_
_	_	_	_	_
_	_	_	_	_
_	_	_	_	_
_	_	_	_	_

1230 – A look st the SREF as I sit down to lunch (in both the virtual and real world) gives me pause for thought. It appears that Comanche, OK may be a bit to far southwest. In the virtual world, I’m at the Lawton Golden Corral (2632 Northwest Cache Road, Lawton, OK 73505) getting a good meal, as it looks like I won’t have a sit-down supper tonight. Suppertime is storm time, so I’ll be munching jerky then (albeit carefully, thanks to a temporary crown my dentist repaired on Saturday … in the real world.) Looks like I’ll need to relocate east then north; better keep lunch down to 15-20 minutes. Time to re-evaluate after lunch.

_	_
_	_
_	_

1250 – I slide east on OK7, then north on US81. Around 1330, ‘virtual me’ gives a wave to Jeff Piotrowski who’s eying the storm that’s gone up between Comanche and Lawton. (I’m always encouraged when I see somebody who really knows what they’re doing. It makes me feel a tiny bit more like I do, too.) Soon, the storm is shooting down some lightning and looking somewhat energetic.

Here are radar images of the storm, which produces a tornado later (though not as large or (thankfully) as deadly as the Moore, OK tornado of later today.

12 May 2013 – CHASE 2013 – Departure

Sign of the day:

11 May 2013 – CHASE 2013 – DAY 11

Today is a travel day, as we need to get everybody back to Oklahoma City by morning.

I’m feeling pretty sad about the trip being over. We have a really terrific group on this tour, and I will miss them all very much when we go our separate ways.

We’ve had a very discouraging weather pattern for storms, but Bill Reid had put us on the best ones whenever they were available (that is, days 1, 8-10)

Today’s USA TODAY seems to be rubbing our noses in the fact we saw no tornado in ten days in May:

______ – We stop at Austin for a lunch at Fuddrucker’s

______ – We jump off I-35N at West,TX. We grab a snack at the famed Czech Stop And Wander East into town. We cannot see the blast site from the recent fertilizer plant explosion. We see houses with boarded-up windows and crumpled aluminum garage doors from blast, even from 14 blocks away from the temporary chain link fence protecting the disaster.

19:10 – We cross the Red River on I35N, returning to Oklahoma for the last time during the trip.

10:00 – Van meet-up
10:15 – briefing
12:45 – lunch

15:35 – 3500 K/kg CAPE in our area. TVS marker on our storm.

16:06 – emergency bathroom stop! OMG, an awful thing at storm time.

(More updates coming Saturday evening)

13:00 – lunch at Montana Mike’s. quick Walmart run, then depart Dodge City (“Time to get outta Dodge!”)

Photos will be added as time permits.

Jim Reed (left) and Kelly DeLay (clouds365.com) survey the sky.

Cumulus field rising. Storms are starting to our south.

07 May 2013 – CHASE 2013 – DAY 7

06:47 – Wake, shower

08:15 – As I’m toweling down from my shower, I get a call from Danny: briefing over. I had written 08:30 down. Oh, crap! “Run, Forrest, run!”

08:30 – Depart Plainview, heading north to Kansas.

10:22 – Continue north from Amarillo,TX, after a stop for bathrooms and a McDonald’s run.

_____ -

11:00 – stopped at (adjacent) Walmart and Verizon stores in Dumas, TX. Dang! They do not carry the myCharge device I wanted to buy. Jenna is getting good use out of mine, but I still need one, too. I’ll try to find one later.

11:40 – Angled northeast toward Guymon, OK on US54.

12:06 – Cross into Oklahoma at
Texhoma.

13:30 – Lunch at the Subway in Hugoton, KS

14:00 – Continue north on KS25 through Ulysses, KS. Developing storms are building to our north.

15:00? – pit stop at Lakin, KS

16:05 – Headed north from Scott City, KS

16:15 – east on KS4 toward Healey

1745 – Heading south towards Dighton on KS23, we briefly encounter quarter-sized hail. (I submitted an mPing report.)

1806. – Charged east of Leighton toward Ness City. Trying to get ahead of our hailer.

______ – We catch a photogenic storm. Many photos, which Jim Reed will critique for me.

.
.
.

23:00 – Arrive At Dodge City Days Inn. A neighbor is engaged in a knock-down, drAgged-out argument; the hallways look like something from The. Brady Bunch era. Wow!

23:30 – We grab dinner at Applebee’s, then turn in for the night.

(More photos soon)

06 May 2013 – CHASE 2013 – DAY 6

10:00 – We sing Happy Birthday to Bill Reid, our meteorologist and main guide. Bill does the weather briefing: chances for storms are rising, chance of severe to be non-zero, too.

11:00 – depart Van Horn, TX for New Mexico. We are positioning to be close to the OK/TX Panhandle – western Kansas area tomorrow.

_____ – stop at Guadalupe Mountain (highest point in Texas) for photos.

_____ – stop at NM/TX line for photos of the welcomes signs.

13:45 (CDT) – stop at Danny’s Place (REAL PIT BBQ) in Carlsbad, NM (the one with the famed Carlsbad Caverns).

17:45 – Exit Roswell, NM via US70N. Fueled up. No aliens sighted.

_____ – ___

_____ – ___

_____ – ___

_____ – ___

Still no consistent Internet. To quote polar explorer Robert Falcon Scott, “What a god-forsaken place!”

We are on Terlingua, TX today. We spent the whole day here, just stone’s throw from the Mexican border.

We have VERY limited Internet availability here. I’m just doing a short, temporary entry until I have a better connection.

Buenos niches!