Hmmmm….
I have time and motivation to chase this weekend, but probably no real opportunity:
SPC AC 110556
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
PLAINS...
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR SATURDAY WITH EXPECTED FRONTAL
PLACEMENT THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE. A TRAIN OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EJECTING FROM THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE DAILY MCS ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT
IN A SUPPRESSED BAROCLINIC ZONE ALA THE 00Z NAM.
EXPECT THAT A MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER
KS/SRN NEB ALONG THE NOSE OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. SUBSEQUENT
DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM IS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY. THE VEERING
LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE MORNING WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN OHIO VALLEY
SYSTEM...WEAKENING OVERALL MASS CONVERGENCE OVER THE CORN
BELT/MIDWEST. NONETHELESS...PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
TOPPED BY VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
WLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS
OCCASIONALLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL FROM SRN IA/NRN MO TO
IND.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN-MOST BRANCH OF THE SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...NEAR THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW. STRONG HEATING...CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT/DRY LINE AND AT LEAST WEAK FORCING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FROM SCNTRL NEB/WRN KS SWD TO SW TX.
STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
FROM WRN KS TO NE NM/TX PANHANDLE WHERE EARLY LIFE-CYCLE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. WHILE
DRY LINE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING OVER NW OK/W TX...A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL MCS WILL EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE WINDS/HAIL. ADDITIONAL...COMPARATIVELY
ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP N OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN CENTRAL/NRN
NEB WITH ISOLATED HAIL.
...GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...
ISOLATED ORGANIZED STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
ERN QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW. THE STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
40-50 KTS OF SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AMID 1000 J/KG MLCAPES. THIS WILL
OFFER AT LEAST A MARGINALLY SEVERE SETUP WITH HAIL/SEVERE WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
...MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NERN STATES...
A WARM-CORE UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER ERN OK/WRN AR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. LONG-TERM HISTORY
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN THE CORE OF
THE LOW WEAKENING DURING THE MORNING WITH SUBSEQUENT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. WHILE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...AS THE SYSTEM GETS ENTRAINED IN SLIGHTLY
STRONGER UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLIES...ANY LINEAR STORM MODES COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS MOST
LIKELY WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID-UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.
COMPARATIVELY LOWER SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST FARTHER TO THE N
AS A NRN-STREAM MID-LEVEL WAVE GLANCES NY STATE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NEWD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MORNING WITH
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IF CLOUDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM
ARE SUFFICIENTLY THIN...COMBINATION OF HEATING...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND PRESENCE OF 45-50 KTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL/HIGH WINDS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT MODELS HAVE NOT OFFERED A
STABLE SOLUTION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHT RISK IS NOT
JUSTIFIED.
..RACY.. 06/11/2010