DAY 10 – A Shot at Distant Storms – 20080602

The morning SPC outlook maps looked like this:

• 0700C – Got about 6 hours sleep. Grabbed a light continental breakfast. Checked the models.
  My target: NE panhandle, west of I-76/I-80 junction.
• 1000C – Group met. we looked at surface obs, model data etc. as follows:
  • RAP surface obs (wind, dew point, etc.)
    Discussed wind convergence, location of front, storm genesis, rotating storms, and supercells
  • GOES visible satellite image for Nebraska (hi-res image, Weathertap)
  • UCAR/RAP/ETA model
    • 500mb winds — eastward trough to our west — supportive of storms; southwest inflow we like
    • 700mb (10,000 feet MSL) — turning winds in NE Colorado
    • 0000Z CAPE – Nebraska panhandle has CAPE bullseye (less CAPE needed, due to altitude)
    • 0000Z Theta E (available moisture) – identified moisture axis runnng NW-SE north of NE panhandle
    • 0000Z 12-hr precips – storm area in Nebraska panhandle, NE Colorado
    • 0000Z Storm relative helicity (SRH)
  • SPC Day 1 (D1) Outlook
    • Target west edge of best risk in our chase range: NE Colorado, Nebraska panhandle
    • D1 Wind Outlook
    • D1 Hail Outlook
    • D1 Tornado Outlook
  • Glance D2 Outlook for planning/logistical purposes
    • 700mb – -10 degC isotherm indicates where cap should hols storms for the afternoon
      Cap too strong(-15 degC isotherm): no/weak storms, Cap too weak: unfocused, widespread storms, Ideal: explosive, focused storms
    • 500 mb winds – only good strength and direction on SE Kansas
  • D3 Outlook
    • E Nebraska / W Iowa (start by Lincoln, NE?)
    • 500 mb winds – only good strength and direction on SE Kansas
  • D4-D6: A cahnce for severe weather
• 1030C – Left Super 8 Motel at Colby, KS, moving toward far western KS and eastern Colorado.
• 1630C – Double back S from Wray, CO through Burlington, CO. 3-inch (baseball-size) hail seen scattered on lawns there, as well as sporadic street flooding. Full sun at Burlington. We blast east on I-70, following the storm that dropped the hail. We turn around about at Goodland, KS.
• 1840C – Returned to Burlington, CO after blasting east to Goodland, S following hailer. Storm fizzled.
• 1953C – North from Wray, CO (again) toward Julesburg, CO, I-76 and our next decision point. Storms develop just south of he NE panhandle.
• 2101C – Lv US6 for CO14 at Sterling, CO — moving west — stopped at N road to Kimball for lightning/sunset photos