26 May 2001
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|Not recorded! (Oops)|
|ACCOMODATIONS||Super 8 Motel
|RESTAURANTS||The continental breakfast at the Days
Inn was better than average, since the motel simply gave us coupons for
the steakhouse next door.
Otherwise, restaurants were not used for
lunch or dinner; this was another beef jerky day.
|WEATHER||Today was predicted to be a SLIGHT RISK
day, but Stephen put us on a terrific storm.
THERE IS NO WAY TO OVERSTATE THE VALUE OF BEING ABLE TO READ THE SKY WELL!
The convective outlook text looked like this for the day (emphasis in RED is mine):
STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW P07 20 NNE FST 20 NNE HOB 30 WNW TCC 35 WNW RTN 15 WNW PUB 20 NNW LAA 45 SW END 35 WNW TXK 30 NE SHV 45 NW POE 30 S LFK 15 NE TPL 30 SE BWD 45 WSW BWD 10 W DRT.
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS A COUPLE OF TROUGHS APPROACH THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING WESTERLY MID LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE FLOW SHOULD CREATE A LEE CYCLONE OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
...SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...
TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS WEAK UPPER SPEED MAXIMA MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD FROM NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. 500 MB FLOW ABOVE 30 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...SO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CREATE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS JUST NORTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TOWARD THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SOMEWHAT FOR TORNADOES. HOWEVER...LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SOMEWHAT WEAK TO SUPPORT TORNADOES. THUS...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE MAIN THREAT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED INITIALLY...WITH AN MCS OR TWO WITH BOTH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLE AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE LATER EVENING HOURS.
..CRAVEN.. 05/26/01NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
TOMORROW'S FORECAST looks like it will take us to the north:
Stephen's choice to move us to Childress
at the end of the day will put us close to the target area (and cut his
driver fatigue) if the convective outlook holds up in the morning.
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