HAILSTORM INTERCEPT
DOUBLE RAINBOW
Saturday
26 May 2001

TRAVEL


FROM: Sonora, TX
TO: Childress, TX
DISTANCE: 487.3 miles
TIME: 16 hours (including stops)

(text TBD). 

(add photos/video, too)
 

NWS/PUBLIC 
SEVERE WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS
Not recorded! (Oops)
ACCOMODATIONS Super 8 Motel
Childress, TX
RESTAURANTS The continental breakfast at the Days Inn was better than average, since the motel simply gave us coupons for the steakhouse next door.

Otherwise, restaurants were not used for lunch or dinner; this was another beef jerky day.
 

WEATHER Today was predicted to be a SLIGHT RISK day, but Stephen put us on a terrific storm.

THERE IS NO WAY TO OVERSTATE THE VALUE OF BEING ABLE TO READ THE SKY WELL!

The convective outlook text looked like this for the day (emphasis in RED is mine):

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM

70 SSW P07 20 NNE FST 20 NNE HOB 30 WNW TCC 35 WNW RTN 15 WNW PUB

20 NNW LAA 45 SW END 35 WNW TXK 30 NE SHV 45 NW POE 30 S LFK

15 NE TPL 30 SE BWD 45 WSW BWD 10 W DRT.
...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS IS

FORECAST TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT AS A COUPLE OF TROUGHS APPROACH THE

WEST COAST.  THIS WILL RESULT IN WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  INCREASING WESTERLY MID LEVEL

COMPONENT TO THE FLOW SHOULD CREATE A LEE CYCLONE OVER WEST

TEXAS...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. 
...SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...
TIMING OF CONVECTION WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AS WEAK UPPER SPEED MAXIMA

MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 
EXPECT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD FROM

NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  500 MB

FLOW ABOVE 30 KNOTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...SO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE

POSSIBLE.
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CREATE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS JUST NORTHEAST

OF SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MLCAPE OF

2500-3000 J/KG ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS TOWARD THE

EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF BOUNDARY

WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SOMEWHAT FOR TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...LCL

HEIGHTS WILL BE RATHER HIGH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SOMEWHAT WEAK TO

SUPPORT TORNADOES.  THUS...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND

DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE MAIN THREAT. 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM

CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE

AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.  ISOLATED

SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED INITIALLY...WITH AN MCS

OR TWO WITH BOTH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL POSSIBLE AS THE

ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARD THE PANHANDLE REGION DURING THE LATER EVENING

HOURS. 
..CRAVEN.. 05/26/01
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z

TOMORROW'S FORECAST looks like it will take us to the north:

Stephen's choice to move us to Childress at the end of the day will put us close to the target area (and cut his driver fatigue) if the convective outlook holds up in the morning.
 

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